C-USA Clash: Gamecocks favored in Las Cruces

Jacksonville State travels to Las Cruces, New Mexico, for a Wednesday night Conference USA matchup against New Mexico State. The Gamecocks, who hold a 5-2 overall record and a perfect 3-0 conference mark, are favored by 3 points. New Mexico State enters the contest with a 3-4 overall record and is fighting to remain competitive in the league standings.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET at Aggie Memorial Stadium. The total points line for the contest is set at 49.5. Betting markets currently price Jacksonville State as the favorite, reflecting their recent consistency in Conference USA play.

SportsLine’s projection model, which simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, projects 56 combined points in this matchup. The model identifies the Over on the total as the value side, hitting in 65% of simulations. The computer’s prediction exceeds the current bookmaker total by 6.5 points.

Recent scoring trends support the high projection. Jacksonville State’s last two games have gone over the total, and four of their last five contests have exceeded the projected score. New Mexico State’s most recent game also finished over the total. The model attributes the high scoring to Jacksonville State’s offensive efficiency and the dual-threat capabilities of quarterback Caden Creel.

Creel’s ability to extend plays with his legs forces defenses to account for both passing and rushing threats, creating additional stress on the defensive unit. New Mexico State relies on quarterback Trey Hedden to keep them relevant in the conference race. The model indicates that one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations, though the specific side is available through the SportsLine service.

The projection model enters Week 9 on a 68-59 record for its top-rated college football picks. Those selections have returned nearly $400 for players who wagered $100. The model’s performance on top-rated picks has been consistent across the current season.