Knesset polls: Palestinian bloc holds 12 to 15 seats as both major camps fall short

Polls indicate that neither the Benjamin Netanyahu-led coalition nor the Jewish Israeli opposition bloc will secure the 61 Knesset seats required to form a government in next week's election. The balance of power rests with Palestinian citizens of Israel, who are projected to win between 12 and 15 seats. These seats will be split between the Islamist Ra'am party and the Joint List, an alliance of three smaller parties including Ta'al.

Ahmad Tibi, who leads Ta'al and has served in the Knesset for over twenty years, stated that his community is committed to toppling the current government. "We are determined to do everything in order to bring this government down. And high turnout among the Arab community is one important tool in achieving this goal," Tibi said. Most of the Jewish opposition has ruled out governing with Arab politicians, yet Netanyahu's camp has worked to make any such alliance politically toxic.

Campaign materials on the right have declared, "It's [either] the right or Palestine," while others use the slogan "Bibi or Tibi." Tibi is unlikely to secure even a junior ministerial post, as Israel has had only two Palestinian ministers in its history. Raleb Majadele held the sport portfolio for two years, and Issawi Frej handled regional coordination for just over a year.

However, promises to avoid Palestinian parties have been broken in the past. In 2021, Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas joined a historic coalition with Naftali Bennett, who is now in the opposition bloc. Netanyahu himself once opened coalition talks with Abbas. A prospective voter in the tech sector noted that the opposition will likely change its position once the results are known. "At the end of the day, everything is mathematics, right? One plus one is two," the voter said.

For Palestinian politicians, forming an alliance remains difficult. None of the opposition parties call for a two-state solution, and most strongly oppose a Palestinian state while backing the settlement movement in the occupied West Bank. Tibi described his choice as being between "bad and worse," pitting the opposition against Netanyahu, Bezalel Smotrich, and Itamar Ben-Gvir.

Fear drives much of the voter motivation. The death and destruction in Gaza, militant violence and ethnic cleansing in the West Bank, and rising racism inside Israel have deepened worries about another four years of far-right ministers. Sami Abu Shehadeh, leader of the Balad party, said, "The biggest motivation is fear," adding that voters understand the danger if "these criminals come back to rule again."

Turnout has historically been depressed by distrust of a system seen as stacked against Palestinians. Last month, Israel's supreme court effectively forced Abu Shehadeh out of the race over an article about the 7 October Hamas-led attacks, a ruling widely criticized for applying different free speech standards to Jewish and Palestinian citizens. Conversely, a motion to disqualify national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir over racist language was not upheld. Some Palestinians abstain on principle, such as Haaretz journalist Nagham Zbeedat, who refuses to "legitimize a system that treats my rights as favors."

Amjed Iraqi of the International Crisis Group said a returning far-right coalition would have a renewed mandate to speed up policies of ethnic cleansing and annexation. He described the vote as largely about mitigation, noting that Palestinians can see the difference between a right-wing and a far-right government. The election also falls two days before Kfar Qasim marks the 1956 massacre in which border police killed 49 men, women, and children who had broken a curfew they did not know about.