Netanyahu Loses 10 Seats but Keeps Path to Power

Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right coalition lost its parliamentary mandate in Israel’s recent election, dropping from 64 seats to a bloc that no longer commands a majority. Despite this defeat, the prime minister retains a viable path to remain in power due to a political barrier facing his rivals. Most Jewish opposition parties have pledged not to form a governing alliance with Palestinian-led parties, a condition that complicates the math for the new majority.

The opposition now holds a firm majority in the Knesset. However, if the pledge to exclude Palestinian-led parties remains intact, Netanyahu could convert his electoral loss into another term as prime minister. Alternatively, he may serve as caretaker for an extended period, a scenario that often precedes a third consecutive election cycle. The campaign leading to the vote featured Netanyahu portraying Palestinian citizens as an internal enemy, a strategy designed to consolidate his base while complicating coalition negotiations for opponents.

Yair Golan, leader of the centre-left Democrats, challenged the narrative that the election result was a stalemate. "Netanyahu lost. I know how to count," Golan stated. He urged the formation of a government that includes Palestinian citizens, who constitute approximately 20% of Israel’s population. Golan called on Israelis to abandon the division between Jewish and Arab votes, a framing he argued was used to justify the coalition’s structure.

Survey data suggests opposition voters may be more flexible than their leaders. Eran Halperin, a political psychology researcher, noted that a survey taken as polls closed showed a clear majority of opposition voters supported partnering with the Ra’am party to remove Netanyahu. While former general Gadi Eisenkot, who leads the largest opposition party, has not explicitly ruled out such an alliance, he has set conditions that make political integration difficult for those parties.

Palestinian-led parties have signaled willingness to cooperate. Yousef Jabareen, head of the Joint List, said his party was ready to help oust the current government through Jewish-Arab partnership. Ra’am, an Islamist party, placed a Jewish former police chief in second position on its candidate list to demonstrate its commitment to cross-ethnic governance. In contrast, Netanyahu’s campaign used the slogan "The right or Palestine," casting the fifth of the population as an enemy within the state.

Netanyahu shrugged off the loss of roughly 10 seats on election night, claiming vindication despite the heavy rebuke. He stated that the right-wing bloc held a clear majority among the Zionist public and called for a strong national-right government. The Knesset has shifted further right, a trend mirrored in voting patterns among young Israelis. Many voters viewed the election as a decisive moment for the state’s democratic character and its handling of the aftermath of the 7 October attacks.