Texas 15th District Polls Show 5-Point Democratic Lead

Polling in Texas's 15th congressional district currently indicates a Democratic lead of five or six points. This result stands in sharp contrast to the 18-point Republican advantage built into the district's 2025 redistricting map. The shift occurs with the midterm elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.

President Donald Trump captured approximately 55% of the Hispanic vote in Texas during the 2024 presidential election, a record for a Republican candidate. Recent surveys taken since late summer suggest that much of that support has eroded. A majority of Hispanic voters in the state now disapprove of the president and prefer Democratic candidates. Government data obtained by the Deportation Data Project shows Texas accounted for roughly one-third of all Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrests nationwide in July 2026, the highest share of any state.

Local leaders describe the changing political climate. Javier Villalobos, the Republican mayor of McAllen, acknowledged the race will be difficult. He noted that while many residents accept the deportation of criminals, opposition grows when productive, law-abiding individuals are targeted. Mario Guerrero, a Mexican-American businessman and head of the South Texas Builders Association, voted for Trump three times but plans to vote for a Democrat in November. Guerrero cited a lack of clarity regarding the administration's enforcement scope. He described an acquaintance whose crew of 35 daily workers has shrunk to four or six people.

Democratic candidate Bobby Pulido, a Tejano singer and two-time Latin Grammy winner, is running on economic concerns rather than the national party brand. "This isn't New York, this isn't LA," Pulido said. At a local avocado festival, residents Dave Baldwin and Veronica Salazar blamed the president for rising prices. Baldwin stated, "He is in control of our destiny with all that, and right now he's not doing a very good job."

Republican strategists recognize the challenges ahead. Mike Madrid, a Republican consultant, pointed out that Latinos are more likely than any other group to identify as independents. Alexis Uscanga, a student volunteer for the Republican campaign, called the midterm election "purely a game of turnout." Tano Tijerina, the Republican candidate in the neighboring 28th district, acknowledged that national political headwinds are real despite Trump's efforts to secure the border.

The Rio Grande Valley region saw more than 2.5 million border apprehensions in a single year under former President Joe Biden. Crossings are now at their lowest level in decades. If current polling holds, the Democratic gain in the 15th district could put a US Senate seat in play. Democrats have not won a Texas Senate seat in more than 30 years.