Votel: New Iran strikes buy time but lack clear end goal

Retired Army Gen. Joseph Votel estimates that a new round of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran will likely degrade the country's military capabilities without ending the conflict. Votel, who led U.S. Central Command from 2016 to 2019, spoke with NPR's Leila Fadel about the strategic objectives behind a potential post-election bombing campaign. He noted that many likely targets have already been hit in previous operations, and Iran has demonstrated an ability to rebuild them.

According to Votel, strikes serve to buy time, punish Tehran, and reduce specific capabilities. However, he observed that these actions have not yet altered Tehran's calculation regarding the war's trajectory. Fadel pointed out that the Iranian government appears to have adopted a harder line, showing greater willingness to execute bold counterattacks. Votel responded that the primary requirement is a clearly defined objective. He stated that Washington must determine what the end state looks like and how the war will be declared finished.

In his assessment, the end state comes down to the nuclear enrichment issue and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Votel argued that once that goal is set, military, economic, diplomatic, and information pressure should all target it. He emphasized that military force is only one component of national power, and the other elements are necessary for success. He identified the financial front as the area showing the most visible progress. The blockade and various sanctions are increasing pressure, he said, citing reports that Iran's so-called ghost fleet has run out of oil. While this approach requires time, Votel noted there is definite movement in that direction.

Votel acknowledged that U.S. aims have been difficult to interpret. He explained that much of the focus centers on reopening the Strait of Hormuz to allow oil and other commerce to move freely. This would help lower gas and diesel prices in the United States. The second major concern is Iran's nuclear program. He added that Iran uses proxies to create regional instability, including a link to the Houthis across the Arabian Peninsula, but he described Hormuz and enrichment as the principal worries. To bring Iran to the negotiating table, Votel stressed the need for a clear statement of objectives, coordinated use of all national power tools, and the patience to see the approach through.

Regarding military readiness, Votel said U.S. offensive power in the region is substantial. He stated that the ability to strike is not in question. The potential constraint is missile defense. Earlier reporting has described heavy pressure on defensive interceptors that protect U.S. forces, regional partners, and critical infrastructure. In his view, offensive capability meets current needs, while defense faces a bit of a constraint.