Mosovo Airports Shut for Nine Hours a Day as Ukrainian Drone Alerts Recur

Ukraine's drone campaign has forced Moscow-area airports to suspend operations for as long as nine hours on some days this month, according to the independent investigative outlet Agentstvo. Domodedovo, Sheremetyevo, Zhukovsky and Vnukovo have halted flights almost daily since October began.

The closures follow a stated objective outlined by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in early September, when he said Ukraine would work to cut off airspace around Moscow and other Russian destinations. Addressing airlines, insurers and travelers, Zelenskyy said, "Russian airspace will become completely unsafe." Ukraine sent a similar warning to the International Civil Aviation Organization the following day. Ukraine's own airspace has been closed since Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022.

The immediate trigger for the shutdowns is a procedure run by Rosaviatsiya, Russia's aviation authority. Known as the "carpet" protocol, it closes the airspace over a region or around affected airports if an aircraft violates Russian airspace, weapons are used or unidentified objects appear in the sky. Strict limits then apply to all air traffic.

Oleksandr Laneckij, chief executive of the consultancy Friendly Avia Support, told DW that "essentially, every drone poses a military threat." He compared the disruption to that caused by Yemen's Houthis in Saudi airspace, adding that Ukraine's military capabilities far exceed theirs. Military analyst Jan Matvejev said triggering the protocol requires only simple drones without warheads or long range, and said Ukraine's arms industry can produce hundreds of combat-ready long-range drones a day.

Laneckij and Matvejev both warned of risks to civilian flights. Laneckij said Russia might lower the threshold for declaring the carpet protocol, raising the danger of incidents like the 2024 Christmas Day crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines flight. Investigators say that aircraft was hit by a Russian air-defense missile fired to counter drones, killing 38 people. Matvejev said little has changed in Russia's air-defense protocol since then.

Whether foreign airlines keep flying to Russia depends on three factors, Laneckij said: the military threat, demand and insurance costs. He said insurers could sharply raise premiums if they rate the risk as very high, sending ticket prices higher. "Whether they stay or not depends on the price they have to pay for the danger faced," he said.