Two-Thirds of Lebanese Shi'ites Want State Control of Hezbollah Weapons

Lebanon's political landscape has long been defined by the relationship between the state and the militant group Hezbollah, which serves as the primary political and military voice for the country's Shi'ite community. New polling data suggests that this relationship is undergoing a measurable shift, with a majority of the group's core demographic now preferring that the Lebanese government control the organization's weapons.

A survey conducted in September by Statistics Lebanon polled 800 Lebanese Shi'ites to gauge their stance on military authority. The results indicated that 66.4% of respondents supported transferring Hezbollah's arsenal to the state. In contrast, 29.6% believed the group should retain its weapons. Hezbollah has historically maintained that its arsenal is necessary to defend Lebanon against Israel.

The poll also measured trust in national security institutions. Approximately 78.5% of respondents stated they trusted the Lebanese Armed Forces. When asked which institution was best positioned to guarantee long-term security, 51.1% chose the army, while only 16.5% selected Hezbollah. Additionally, 71.1% of participants said decisions regarding war and peace should be made exclusively by the Lebanese state, with just 5.9% wanting Hezbollah's leadership to play a larger role in the country's future.

Perceptions of Hezbollah's performance in the conflict with Israel were generally negative. Some 67.4% of respondents said the group had either failed to meet its goals or achieved only some of them. Another 42.1% expressed disappointment, anger, or concern about the group's leadership and the consequences of the conflict. Despite this, 59.5% still reported some level of trust in the organization, including 37.1% who indicated a great deal of trust.

Roi Kais of Israel's public broadcaster KAN noted that Hezbollah's strength is sustained by its support networks and status within the sect, provided no other entity fills the political vacuum. This finding contrasts with a May 2026 survey by Lebanon's Information International, cited by researchers Orna Mizrahi and Moran Levanoni, which found that 87.5% of Shi'ite respondents opposed disarming Hezbollah. The discrepancy between the two polls has raised questions about how survey wording and agendas may influence results.

Local signs of wariness have emerged in southern Lebanon. In Tyre, property owners reportedly opposed opening a branch of Al-Qard Al-Hassan, a financial institution linked to Hezbollah, in their building due to fears of Israeli strikes. The group has announced aid of up to $14,000 for eligible families in Beirut and its southern suburbs whose primary homes were destroyed, and up to $12,000 elsewhere. Hezbollah has suffered major leadership losses, including the killing of Hassan Nasrallah in September 2024, and a new war began in March 2026 that caused heavy destruction in southern villages.