56 seats for opposition in final Channel 12 poll

Israeli voters cast ballots on Tuesday morning for the Knesset. This is the first election held since the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023. A Channel 12 poll released on Friday projects the opposition bloc will win 56 seats. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc is projected to win 50 seats. Neither bloc holds the 61 seats required for a majority without Arab party support.

Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party leads the opposition. The poll projects Yashar will win 22 seats. This number exceeds the 19 seats projected for Netanyahu’s Likud party. Likud currently holds 32 seats in the outgoing Knesset. Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad party is projected to win 14 seats.

Voting stations opened at 7:00 a.m. Exit polls are scheduled for release at 10:00 p.m. These polls will offer preliminary projections of the results. Official results will be finalized after the vote count is completed. Voting at diplomatic missions abroad ended on October 16. Voting at some military bases began last week.

The Channel 12 poll shows Arab parties winning a combined 16 seats. Most opposition leaders have pledged not to form a government with Arab parties. They argue such a coalition would not be viable after the October 7 attacks. Netanyahu’s bloc has led Israel for 19 non-consecutive years.

Central issues for voters include the IDF’s manpower crisis and haredi conscription legislation. Three years of war have strained military resources. The opposition calls for a state commission of inquiry into government failures surrounding the attack. The establishment of a Palestinian state has moved to the background. Most parties now agree against it.

The electoral threshold is set at 3.25% of valid votes. The Taub Center estimates a party needs 165,635 votes to cross this threshold at a 70% turnout rate. This matches the turnout of the 2022 election. Higher turnout increases the required vote count. This makes it harder for small parties to enter the Knesset.

Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party and Yoaz Hendel’s Reservists-Economics party are fighting to clear the threshold. Their success will affect coalition building. Police deployed approximately 20,000 officers and volunteers on Tuesday. They are stationed at polling stations nationwide to maintain public order.

Police stated they aim to safeguard the integrity of the elections. They want to ensure the democratic process follows the law. Forces are deployed in surrounding areas of voting stations. This preparation follows Monday’s announcement of special Election Day measures.