CNN Poll Shows Tight Senate Races in Maine, Kansas, Texas, and Michigan

A new CNN poll released on October 29 shows that four key Senate races are too close to call, with Democrats holding narrow leads in Texas, Michigan, and Maine while Republicans trail in Kansas. These contests will determine which party controls the Senate for the next two years. Democrats need to flip four seats to secure a 51-seat majority and avoid a tie broken by the vice president.

In Maine, former Senate President Troy Jackson leads incumbent Susan Collins, R-Maine, by four points. The poll found 49 percent of respondents favoring Jackson compared to 45 percent for Collins. At least 12.5 percent of voters indicated they could still change their minds. Collins is the only Republican incumbent running in a state that voted for Kamala Harris in 2024. Respondents tied Collins to her party less than any other Republican Senate candidate, with 46 percent saying she would choose constituents over the party. Three-quarters of voters from both parties cited Collins herself as the primary motivation for their choice, not Jackson.

In Michigan, Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed has widened his lead over former Representative Mike Rogers, R-Mich. El-Sayed now holds 49 percent of the vote compared to Rogers' 42 percent. This is up from a 47 percent to 44 percent gap in a CNN poll from early September. El-Sayed has consolidated party support after a contentious primary, with 95 percent of likely Democratic voters saying they will support him. Rogers' favorability has dropped from 58 percent in September to 50 percent in October. Fifty-seven percent of Rogers' backers say they are voting against El-Sayed rather than for Rogers.

Texas State Representative James Talarico maintains a six-point lead over Attorney General Ken Paxton in Texas. Talarico has 49 percent support while Paxton has 43 percent. Talarico has been absent from the campaign trail for parts of early October but continues to lead. Sixty-four percent of likely voters of color support Talarico, including 22 percent of that group who voted for Donald Trump in 2024. Talarico also leads in favorability within his own party, with only 2 percent of Democrats viewing him unfavorably. In contrast, 24 percent of Republicans have an unfavorable view of Paxton.

In Kansas, Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton leads incumbent Senator Roger Marshall, R-Kan., by four points. Hamilton has 49 percent support while Marshall has 45 percent. Kansas voted for Trump by 16 percentage points in 2024. Hamilton, a Christian pastor, is outperforming his party's general brand, as 57 percent of voters view the Democratic Party unfavorably while only 38 percent feel the same about Hamilton. Fifty-nine percent of Hamilton's supporters say they are motivated by opposition to Marshall. Roughly 12 percent of Republican and Republican-leaning likely voters support Hamilton.

CNN conducted the telephone polling between October 20 and October 27. The survey randomly sampled registered voters and considered 838 likely voters in Kansas, 783 in Maine, 768 in Michigan, and 923 in Texas. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 4.5 percent for Kansas and Maine, 4.7 percent in Michigan, and 4.2 percent in Texas. Fox News Digital contacted all eight campaigns for comment.