38% of NC Democrats Voted Early, a New Midterm Record

Thirty-eight percent of registered Democrats in North Carolina cast early ballots by Saturday afternoon, setting a new record for midterms in the state.

The 2026 election cycle saw a sharp divergence in early voting behavior between the two major parties. While Democratic voters drove record participation, Republican engagement remained lower. By the close of early voting on Saturday, 26% of registered Republicans had voted. This gap has raised alarms among GOP leadership, who now face the challenge of mobilizing a larger share of their base on Election Day to offset the early Democratic surge.

Congressman Mark Harris, a Republican representing part of the Charlotte area, described the turnout as unlike anything he has witnessed in recent years. He attributed the high Democratic numbers to anger and a desire to defeat President Trump. Harris stated that Democrats have what he calls Trump Derangement Syndrome and view this race as a final opportunity to gain leverage against the president. He also noted that the Democratic Party is organized in a way he has not seen in recent years, effectively getting voters to the polls. As a precaution, Harris is spending final campaign funds on commercials. His opponent is Democrat Colby Watson, a Union County farmer and business owner who is a political unknown in the district, which Harris considers safe for Republicans.

The low Republican turnout is also impacting the state Senate race. Republican candidate Michael Whatley trails former Governor Roy Cooper by seven to thirteen points in various polls. Michael Bitzer, a professor at Catawba College and longtime election watcher, noted that polls typically tighten in normal North Carolina election years. He said the current data does not reflect that pattern, observing that Cooper continues to hold double-digit leads. The situation in South Carolina presents a different picture. Latest polling shows the Senate race between Republican Darline Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews is effectively tied.

Independent voters are adding another variable to the equation. Thirty-five percent of unaffiliated North Carolinians have already voted, a number analysts describe as unusually high. Some experts suggest many of these voters are anti-Trump independents leaning toward the Democratic column. Polls in North Carolina open at 6:30 a.m. on Tuesday. Polls in South Carolina open at 7:00 a.m. the same day.