Flavio Bolsonaro Holds 1.3 Point Lead in Final Brazil Poll Before Sunday Vote

A CNT/MDA poll released Saturday shows Flavio Bolsonaro leading President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva by 1.3 percentage points in the final days of Brazil’s presidential campaign. The survey places Bolsonaro at 46.3 percent and Lula at 45 percent. The margin of error for the study is 2.2 percentage points.

The data marks a slight shift from a week earlier, when the same polling organization reported Bolsonaro leading by a wider margin of 46.8 percent to 45.9 percent. This result comes as the two candidates conclude their campaigns ahead of a run-off election scheduled for Sunday. The contest remains statistically tied given the error range.

Lula, 80, addressed supporters at Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro on Saturday. Wearing a red hat and standing on a campaign truck, he waved a Brazilian flag while speaking to hundreds of people. He distinguished his platform from his rival’s by referencing Bolsonaro’s relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump. "The people must choose either someone who kisses the national flag or someone who kisses the American flag," Lula said.

Flavio Bolsonaro, a senator and the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, held a separate rally in the southeastern state of Minas Gerais. The event featured hundreds of motorcyclists wearing yellow national football shirts. Bolsonaro secured 47 percent of the vote in the first round, narrowly outpacing Lula’s 45 percent share. The current run-off determines whether Lula completes a fourth, non-consecutive term or if Brazil continues a regional shift to the right.

Campaigners on both sides emphasized distinct policy priorities during the final days. Bolsonaro pledged to add hundreds of thousands of prison places and cut government spending. His father, who served as president from 2019 to 2022, is currently serving a 27-year sentence for attempting a coup after losing the 2022 election to Lula. Ebert Dorigo, a supporter at the Minas Gerais rally, told the AFP news agency that Lula’s Workers' Party had encouraged dependence on welfare. "The values we uphold are nation and family," Dorigo said.

The two candidates engaged in a calmer final debate on Friday, though they continued to exchange accusations regarding economic management. Gabriela Ribeiro Viana, an event organizer, described the voting decision as difficult. "If there were any other candidate, that would be a better option. But we're stuck choosing between the worst, the horrible, and the lesser evil," she told AFP.