Israeli Opposition: Weighing 58-Seat Minority Path Amid Internal Friction

The upcoming Israeli elections are poised to produce a fragmented parliament where no single bloc clearly commands the 61 seats required for a stable government. In response, opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot has floated a plan to form a minority cabinet if his camp secures just 58 or 59 seats. This approach relies on winning a confidence vote without the permanent support of 61 members of the Knesset, a legal mechanism that allows a government to take office if opponents abstain rather than actively vote against it.

Eisenkot argues that this method would allow the change-seeking parties to govern while they work to expand their parliamentary base. He stated that he rejects serving under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, including in a rotation arrangement. The plan depends on the arithmetic of the confidence vote, which differs from a constructive vote of no confidence. While removing an incumbent government requires 61 affirmative votes for an alternative, installing a new one can succeed with a simple majority if enough members stay silent.

Key figures in the anti-Netanyahu coalition disagree on this threshold. Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, who lead the Beyachad list, insist on a Zionist government and refuse to rely on the votes or abstentions of Arab parties. Avigdor Liberman, head of Yisrael Beytenu, categorically rejects a minority government, even a transitional one. He maintains that a Zionist majority must exist from the start and has suggested that some Likud members might join a government without Netanyahu, though he has not named specific candidates or opened formal talks.

The parties are also coordinating a move to replace Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana before any coalition deal is finalized. This step would give opposition members control of the parliamentary agenda, potentially even if Netanyahu remains head of a caretaker government. The speaker is elected in a public vote early in a new term, and the opposition bloc could secure a majority for its candidate by drawing on votes from Arab parties. Names under consideration include Chili Tropper, Matan Kahana, and Elazar Stern from Eisenkot’s list, along with Meirav Ben-Ari, Eitan Ginzburg, Efrat Rayten, and Oded Forer from other factions.

Liberman estimated that up to one-third of outgoing coalition members might vote against Ohana, provided they do so openly. No consensus candidate has been announced yet. The opposition also aims to advance a state commission of inquiry into the events of October 7, adjust conscription laws, and limit the prime minister’s tenure. Liberman additionally seeks a bar on candidates facing criminal charges serving as prime minister. While party teams have begun coordinating on these legislative priorities, no binding agreement exists on the order of operations or the specific details of the judicial changes.

A meeting between Eisenkot and Liberman earlier this week ended with a joint call to increase voter turnout but did not resolve their disagreement over the government's structure. Leadership rivalry persists, with Eisenkot seeking to head the largest party and Bennett citing his prior experience as prime minister to support his candidacy. The opposition faces the challenge of uniting diverse factions that have different views on judicial reforms and the role of the prime minister in the cabinet.