Kentucky district where Trump won by 15 points is now a toss-up

Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District is now rated a toss-up, a sharp departure from its recent history. In the 2024 presidential election, the district voted for Donald Trump by 15 points. The seat is open this year, and both major parties are treating it as a critical battleground.

The district covers central Kentucky, including the city of Lexington and surrounding rural and suburban areas. It is considered the state’s most politically mixed district. In 2023, the same area voted for Democratic Governor Andy Beshear by 20 points. That shift in local voting patterns has led Democrats to target the seat early in the cycle.

Republican candidate Ralph Alvarado is a Kentucky state senator and former health commissioner for Tennessee. He secured Trump’s endorsement during the primary but has since distanced himself from the president’s policies. Alvarado skipped Trump’s rally in northern Kentucky and has softened his stance on tariffs. He described the current conflict in Iran as requiring a resolution after months of fighting.

Democratic candidate Zach Dembo is a Navy veteran and former federal prosecutor. He left the Department of Justice under the second Trump administration, citing the politicization of the agency. Dembo campaigns against Trump’s war tariffs, Medicaid cuts, and corruption. He told voters, “We’re going to win this, but there are worse things than losing a campaign, like losing your integrity and going in bought and sold.”

Voter sentiment in the district is mixed. Harry Van Epps, a Republican supporter in Lexington, argued that personal responsibility favors Alvarado. Bobby McDowell, a Democrat from Scott County, noted that Dembo’s background as a federal prosecutor and Navy JAG officer provided the credentials voters have lacked for years. Both candidates acknowledge the race is close.

National polling data shows Trump’s approval rating in Kentucky has dropped 34 points since January of last year, reaching a negative 11 point net approval rating according to Civiqs. This decline mirrors trends in other states where Democrats are competing in traditionally Republican areas, including South Carolina, Iowa, Montana, and Texas. Democrats are currently favored to flip the U.S. House of Representatives, with the Senate also in play.

Polls in the 6th District close at 6 p.m. Eastern time on Tuesday. Early voting has already concluded for its three-day window. Because of the close polling, the district may be among the first toss-up races to be called on election night.